T. J. Connolly makes his Nostrodamus predictions
T.J. Connolly (photo)
Decision 2007…In-Decision
By T.J. Connolly
By T.J. Connolly
This Saturday, May 12th is Election Day in San Antonio. But don’t tell anyone. It’s one of the City’s best kept secrets.
Ten City Council races, a Mayor’s race (not!), two races for the BexarMet Board and nearly $2 billion in school and City bonds are at stake.
But all indications are lower-than-expected turnout. Shameful! Why? For one, none the various City Council candidates have been able to raise the $100,000+ needed today to run a dominant campaign.
Secondly, Mayor Phil Hardberger has high approval ratings and low stature opponents. Finally, while the various School District bonds will pass, the City’s $550 million bond program should pass, but if it does, it will be close. The “Foundation for the Future” $550 million City Bond campaign will go down as one of the worst run campaigns in recent history. JoAnn Ramon, where are you when we need you?
The direct mail for the City’s bond campaign was beautiful, but no one read it. The billboards are confusing, and that’s a compliment. And worst of all, no one is talking about it. It’s such an important package, it is a shame the campaign has been run so poorly. Despite the amateurish selling of the bond package, it’s in the City’s best interest that it passes. Vote “Yes” on the bonds.
A couple of good, new members are about to join the City Council.
Philip Cortez in District Four, despite upsetting the City’s moral keepers at the Express-News (first they endorsed him, then publicly spanked him, then took their endorsement back) will be an immediate impact Councilmember. So too will be District Seven’s new Councilmember Justin Rodriguez. Rodriguez’s opponent was endorsed by the Express-News, which probably gives Rodriguez an additional 3% advantage. Now Rodriguez nervously waits, fearing that the Express-News might change its mind and withdraw their endorsement of his opponent and endorse him! They’ve done it before!
Philip Cortez in District Four, despite upsetting the City’s moral keepers at the Express-News (first they endorsed him, then publicly spanked him, then took their endorsement back) will be an immediate impact Councilmember. So too will be District Seven’s new Councilmember Justin Rodriguez. Rodriguez’s opponent was endorsed by the Express-News, which probably gives Rodriguez an additional 3% advantage. Now Rodriguez nervously waits, fearing that the Express-News might change its mind and withdraw their endorsement of his opponent and endorse him! They’ve done it before!
That brings us to the BexarMet elections. Now, you may not know about the BexarMet elections because the Express-News, after interviewing all the candidates decided that not only would they not make an endorsement (because they are in bed with Rep. Robert Puente and County Judge Nelson Wolff is handing BexarMet’s water rights and assets over to the troubled San Antonio Water Systems.
I wonder who gets the pillow in that trio?), but then, as the only newspaper in town, they decided not to tell you who the candidates are.
The paper has every right not to endorse a candidate, but they are derelict in their public service duty to educate and inform their readers. They are as bad as FOX News. The Express-News is now deciding what news they want to report. Worse, they are deciding, based on their personal views, if news is news.
In the old days, the San Antonio Light just reported the news. So then you find folks like me. Yep, I had the nerve to legally write thousands of dollars in checks and loans to two candidates (James Fenimore and Blanche Atkinson) running for the BexarMet Board promising to lower rates and continue reforms that a majority of the BexarMet Board and new management started two+ years ago.
That really got our City’s moral guards at the Express-News upset. Some, like columnist Jaime Castillo even started hyperventilating. I’ve hoped and prayed that the Express-News would run one of their holier-than-thou editorials attacking me for exercising my public right. I call it a public duty. They call it naughty.
Philip Cortez and Justin Rodriguez will win Saturday night.
James Fenimore and Blanche Atkinson will win Saturday night.
BexarMet will survive.
James Fenimore and Blanche Atkinson will win Saturday night.
BexarMet will survive.
A bad night for the moral guards at the Express-News. Can you imagine the candidates lining up for the Express-News’ endorsements in 2008?
1 comment:
"My Two Cents"
By R.R.Rodriguez
Mr. Connolly:
Thank you for your insight and comments; however, I think you have failed to give the voters a true analysis and prediction of the city council races. For the record and my two cents-this is my analysis and predictions:
In District 1, Mary Alice Cisneros because she has the coffers and the name, also, she has a strong base and organization. This is a dynasty district and Mary Alice can have two terms if she so chooses.
In District 2, I will have to give the election to the incumbent Sheila McNeil because she has name recognition, has community support, and her opponents are not as polished. The city can count on another two years with McNeil sitting in the District 2 seat.
In District 4, Phillip Cortez will prevail; but not because he is the better person, but because he is a better candidate. This race was always his to loose and the fact that he LIED about his Master’s degree from UTSA won’t stop this train. He’ll win simply because his opponent is naïve, unorganized, and under financed. The only surprise is that Phil Cortez spent $23K as opposed to Manuel Navarro’s $3K-talk about going after an ant with a sledgehammer. If Mr. Cortez had a better opponent than he would be in trouble but sadly, everyone that can leaves the district for a better part of the city, “Se Fueron”-“they left” they say.
In District 5, I think Lourdes Galvan will win. She’s tough, knows the district, and has presence there. She’s raised more funds than any of her opponents and she is doing a lot of block walking. There won’t even be in a run-off on this one.
In District 6, we like the incumbent, Delecia Herrera. She hasn’t done anything during her first term to make anyone upset and her opponents are pretty amateurish.
In District 7, I agree with Mr. Connolley, Justin Rodriguez will prevail but it will be a hell of a cat fight. Justin Rodriguez has spent about $52K as opposed to Elena Guajardo’s $46K but Justin is doing a lot of block walking and he’s going to prevail. Ms. Guajardo has upset many people in the district and those people have long memories.
District 8 is anyone’s ball game. Although Morris Stribling has the Express New’s endorsement, he’s only spent about $12K, about the same as Gloria Sanchez. Mario Obledo has spent the most at about $20K with Diane Cibrian running second with $17K. Cecconi is at $15K and has a pretty large billboard on the corner of Callaghan and IH-10. Dell falls in last with $8K. This race is going to a run-off and I predict it to be Obledo and Cibrian-Obledo because his campaign is gaining steam and Cibrian because she is doing a lot of advertising in the district. Obledo will prevail, however, because there are many established politicos in this district who are on the fence on this one until the run-off. You’ll see more of those guys lining up behind Obledo after May 12 and when they do, Cibrian will find her army under-stengthed.
District 10 goes to John Clamp just because he has the experience and political base that Rey De Los Santos lacks.
The Mayoral race goes to Phil Harberger just because San Antonio is riding a wave of optimism and good news. Phil’s done a hell of a job and the people of San Antonio know it.
So, the face of the new city government looks like:
Mayor – Phil Hardberger
District 1 – Mary Alice Cisneros
District 2 – Sheila McNeil
District 3 – Rolond Guiterrez
District 4 – Phillip Cortez
District 5 – Lourdes Galvan
District 6 – Delicia Herrera
District 7 – Justin Rodriguez
District 8 – Mario Obledo
District 9 – Kevin Wolff
District 10 – John Clamp
I think the first chance they get they’ll try to get rid of term limits and perhaps wages for councilman.
Mr. Connolley-if you truly had a crystal ball, who do you like in the mayoral race after this one? Whether you know it or not, the jockeying has already begun. My predictions on who will throw their hat in the ring are Julian Castro and Kevin Wolff. If Julian doesn’t run than I’m thinking Richard Perez.
And for the record, no one cares about the Bexar Met race-who are the candidates again?
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