Commentary on Congressional races

By T.J. Conolly (caricature)
Commentary from the SA Lightning
Conservative Internet newspaper

A three federal judge panel did in a matter of days what the Texas Legislature couldn’t do in years; drew Congressional District lines that are fair to voters, respects the voter’s rights and brings a certain level of sanity to an otherwise insane process.

The three Federal Judges, two Republicans and one Democrat, drew their own map.

They decided that rather than splitting the City of Laredo in half, they would restore it and place the entire community in Congressman Henry Cuellar’s District.

In his early 50’s, Cuellar is probably looking at the next 20 years representing all of Laredo and north into South Bexar County. Cuellar, the most popular Congressman to come out of Laredo has now run his last tough race.

Congressman Henry Bonilla finds himself on the opposite end of job security. While he will sail to re-election in ’06 and if he has to, in a special ’07 race, considering that he has over $2.3 million in his campaign war chest today, the gaggle of Democrats lining up to take on Bonilla on is literally growing by the hour.

Right now, former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez, former City Councilman and 2005 Mayoral candidate Julian Castro, current City Councilman Richard Perez and Del Rio-based State Representative Pete Gallegos are burning up the phone lines lining up support for a potential 2006 special challenge.They are trying to line up support for a race none of them can win in 2006.

In picking up 100,000 new Hispanic voters in the 23rd Congressional District, most of them from the San Antonio area, Bonilla probably picked up 89,764 unfriendly constituents. Still today, money is key.

Can anyone of the slew of credible Democratic candidates raise more than $1 million to compete with Bonilla in the next 30 days? NO! But in 2008? YES!

In his ’05 race for Mayor, with donation caps in place, Julian Castro raised over $700,000. In his 2006 challenge to Congressman Cuellar in the Democratic Primary, former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez raised over $500,000.

But right now, Rodriguez is $50,000 in debt, Castro $15,000 in debt and Perez is sitting on $15,000. Gallegos has a bit more than $50,000. ALL of them are over $2 million behind Bonilla, with the election just around the corner.

Time will tell.

The other two impacted Congressman, Lamar Smith and Lloyd Doggett find themselves in similar positions. Smith, like Cuellar, is a Congressman-for-life. His District changes are minor, and all he does is pick up more supporters.

Coupled with his exceptional constituent services and growing tenure in Congress, Smith has many more safe terms ahead of him.

Finally, Congressman Doggett may find himself in the same condition as Bonilla. Doggett picks up less friendly constituents, but has enough money in the bank to survive until ’08. Come 2008, a number of strong Republican candidates will be licking their chops take him on.

Doggett is a long-time fighter. He has been counted out many times before. But ’08 will be his biggest challenge.

What does all this mean to San Antonio?

First, get used to Congressman Cuellar representing San Antonio’s southern sector for the next 20 years.

Secondly, watch for Bonilla to move to friendlier and much more lucrative ground in 2008. And look for County Commissioner Lyle Larson to launch an aggressive bid to replace him.

Thirdly, Lamar isn’t going anywhere, and regardless if Republicans stay in the majority (becoming more unlikely everyday), his 20 years in Congress remains a major plus for San Antonio.

Finally, rumors persist that San Antonio’s fourth Congressman, Charlie Gonzalez is looking for opportunities in the private sector. We will have to wait and see if Democrats seize control of the U. S. House in 2006.

If they do, Gonzalez may elect to stick around for awhile and enjoy majority party status.